I'm surprised when many entrepreneurs don't understand Gartner's Hype Cycle!
|Michael McAnally - I've been privileged to live in the bay for 27 years now and I've seen and done a few things!|
I would hope that the VCs do!
See example article for 2015: What’s New in Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2015, then my comments, if you care to.
Listen, I ride the technology waves as much as any other futurist, sci-fi reader/blogger, dreamer and prediction geek, but you have to get real, and "realize" that new technology doesn't live in a bubble, it's constantly being hyped and poked by the media. That's their job. Sometimes they are to blame, sometimes not.
Things are sensationalized, hence "The Peak Of Inflated Expectations", then the depression that follows, "Valley of Disillusionment" when it doesn't seem that technology delivered on its promises, example Google Glass. It wasn't technologies fault, it was our expectations! Something like Glass will be a success, it just hasn't arrived yet. I pick on Google, why? Because simply that one is just too perfect an example.
Then why are companies like Airbnb, Uber, Dropbox successful? Because they use more mature technologies that are proven to solve their business models. Their problems relate to changing the public mindset, its behavior and existing and non-existing laws. That said, I personally find these companies less exciting. Its not that I don't like them, its just I get excited about the new technologies. Maybe also because I don't have a spare room to rent, or want to drive a stranger around town . . . For money.
Now where do we go from hear? Am I saying don't try businesses with new emerging technologies, no of course not! Just beware of the hype, public acceptance and technology refinement cycles.
The thing that's big on my radar now is AI, Self Driving Cars, Robotics, Nanotech, Longevity Research, Space Colonization, Transhumanism. Hey I'm like the next person, I love this stuff!! Do I think it will be here tomorrow morning? In my dreams it will.